Aftershocks Are Not Afterthoughts

Aftershocks Are Not Afterthoughts Aftershocks, those who live through major earthquakes often say, are worse than the main shock in their own way. At least the main shock took them by surprise and was over fairly soon, in less than a minute usually. But with aftershocks, people are stressed already, dealing with disrupted lives and cities. They expect aftershocks at any minute, day or night. When a building is damaged by the main shock, aftershocks can take it down- maybe when youre inside cleaning it up. No wonder Susan Hough, the government seismologist who gets in the news whenever temblors do, calls aftershocks ghosts of earthquakes past. The Duration of Aftershocks I can show you some aftershocks right now: just look at the map of recent earthquakes for the San Simeon area of California. In any given week, there are aftershocks there from the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. And east of Barstow  you can still see a trickle of aftershocks from the October 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Indeed, some scientists argue that aftershocks may last for centuries in places, like continental interiors, where plate motions that build up stresses in the crust are very slow. This makes intuitive sense, but careful studies using long historical catalogs will need to be done. The Trouble with Aftershocks Two things about aftershocks make them troublesome. First, they arent restricted to the spot where the main shock occurred, but can strike tens of kilometers away- and, say, if a magnitude 7 quake was centered out beyond the suburbs but one of its magnitude 5 aftershocks happened right underneath City Hall, the littler one might be the worse of the two. This was the case with the Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake of September 2010 and its large aftershock five months later. Second, aftershocks dont necessarily get smaller as time passes. They get fewer, but sizable ones can happen long after most of the little ones have ended. In Southern California, this phenomenon aroused so much concern after the Northridge quake of 17 January 1994 that Hough wrote an op-ed piece for the Los Angeles Times on the subject three full years later. Scientific Uses of Aftershocks Aftershocks are scientifically interesting because they are good ways to map the underground fault zone that ruptured in the main shock. (Heres how they look for the cases of Northridge.) In the case of the 28 September 2004 Parkfield quake, you can see that the first hour of aftershocks alone outlines the ruptured zone quite well. Aftershocks are also interesting because theyre fairly well behaved- meaning that they have a detectable pattern, unlike all other quakes. The definition that scientists use for an aftershock is any seismic event occurring within one rupture-zone length of a main shock and within the time it takes for seismicity to fall off to what it was before the main shock. This body of quakes fits three mathematical rules, more or less. The first is the Gutenberg-Richter relation, which says that as you go down one magnitude unit in size, aftershocks increase in number by about ten times. The second is called Baths law, which says that the largest aftershock is, on average, 1.2 magnitude units smaller than the main shock. And finally, Omoris law states that aftershock frequency decreases by roughly the reciprocal of time after the main shock. These numbers differ a bit in different active regions depending on their geology, but theyre close enough for government work as the saying goes. So seismologists can advise the authorities immediately after a large earthquake that a certain area can expect X probabilities of aftershocks of Y sizes for Z period of time. The U.S. Geological Surveys STEP project produces a daily map of California with the current risk of strong aftershocks for the next 24 hours. Thats as good a forecast as we can make, and probably the best possible given that earthquakes are inherently unpredictable. Aftershocks in the Quiet Zones Still to be determined is how much Omoris law varies beyond active tectonic settings. Large earthquakes are rare away from plate boundary zones, but a 2000 paper in Seismological Research Letters by John Ebel showed that aftershocks of these intra-plate earthquakes could last for several centuries. One of those was the 1663 Charlevoix, Quebec, earthquake; another was the 1356 earthquake in Basel, Switzerland. In the American Midwest, those would be prehistoric events. In 2009 Seth Stein and Mian Liu argued in Nature that these quiet settings seem to slow everything down, with stress increasing slowly and aftershock sequences lasting longer. They also noted that where the historical record is short, such as in the United States, it may be a mistake to judge the degree of earthquake hazard from events that are actually aftershocks rather than background seismicity. This knowledge may not help you cope with your nerves if you live in an aftershock zone. But it does give you some guidelines as to how bad things will be. And more concretely, it can help engineers judge how probable it is that your new building will be hit by significant aftershocks over the next few years and plan accordingly. PS: Susan Hough and her colleague Lucy Jones wrote an article on this subject for Eos, the house journal for the American Geophysical Union, in November 1997. The U.S. Geological Survey scientists closed by saying that we would like to propose that the phrase just an aftershock be hereafter banned from the English language. Tell your neighbors.

An Analysis of H.G. Wells The Invisible Man Invisible Man Essays

"The stranger came early in February, one wintry day, through a biting wind and a driving snow. He was wrapped from head to foot, and the brim of his soft felt hat hid every inch of his face but the shiny tip of his nose. He staggered into the Coach and Horses (an Inn in Ipling), more dead than alive"(p.11) The stranger was the invisible man. The Invisible Man was written by H.G. Wells, and published in 1964. The invisible man is a dynamic character who was changed by society. He seemed to start out as a quiet man who didn't like to be disturbed. Things that some of the people did made him angry to the point that at the end he was killing people for no apparent reason. In the beginning I wanted the people to leave the Invisible Man alone, but by the end he needed to be killed. Before he made himself invisible, he was an albino. His name was Griffen, and he was living in a rented place, where he would conduct his experiments. He kept getting pissed off at his landlord, who was constantly bothering Griffen. With the landlord always around, Griffen was always afraid that someone would figure out how he was making things transparent. He thought that becoming invisible was a utopian idea, and he didn't want someone stealing his idea. Griffen was so stuck on his invention that he didn't take the time to think the whole thing out. He comes across as a nervous character at this point in the story. The landlord made him very angry and he decided to run the experiment on himself. Once he was invisible, he destroyed his machine, and because he was so angry he burned the house down. As he walked the streets he was leaving muddy footprints. Some boys saw the footprints and the ghostly feet that made them. Immediately, the boys drew a crowd and started chasing the feet. This made him cautious, and he realized that it wasn't going to be easy to stay invisible. He needed clothes and shelter, so he went to a department store where he thought he could steal clothes after they closed. He needed to be visible to get his money and his books. His plan didn't work so well and he had to leave with nothing. He finally got some clothes by knocking out the owner of a costume shop and stealing what he needed.

Development and application of a diatom-inferred pH model Research Paper

Development and application of a diatom-inferred pH model - Research Paper Example The RMSE gives a measure of the ‘apparent’ error in the model and thus over-optimistic while the RMSE calculated using bootstrap is a more reliable indicator of the true predictive ability of a transfer function. Analysis of the dataset with both simple weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging with tolerance down-weighting (WA(tol)) resulted in the selection of WA for pH reconstructions as it gave lower estimates of the RMSEP (Table 2). After having decided on criteria that maximize the performance of the model, I have applied it to a lake sediment core, Llyn Hir to perform a pH reconstruction. In WA reconstructions, averages are taken twice, once in WA regression and once in WA calibration. The resulting shrinkage of the inferred environmental variable is corrected for using inverse or classical deshrinking regression (Birks et al., 1990). Following analyses using both methods, trends in residuals revealed that inverse deshrinking was more prone to be biased than classical deshrinking technique (Table 3). The resulting WA classical deshrinked transfer function was applied to fossil diatom assemblages enumerated from the Llyn Hir sediment core. WA regression and calibration (both with and without tolerance down-weighting) were performed using C2 Programme. The WA model shows a strong predicted relationship between observed pH and diatom-inferred pH values (r2 = 0.83) (Figure 2). Statistical results for both simple and tolerance down-weighted WA show that the predictive ability of the WA and WA(tol) models, in terms of the predicted r2 and the RMSEP, are comparable (Table 2). Simple WA was chosen as it gives slightly higher predicted correlation between measured and diatom-inferred pH and lower predicted estimates of the error in this model. A total of 124 diatom taxa were observed throughout the Llyn Hir core, 8 of which did not occur in the training dataset. This means that over 90% of the diatoms occurred in training set which makes our

Can Amanda Turn Her New Business Around Before It Is Too Late Case Study - 1

Can Amanda Turn Her New Business Around Before It Is Too Late - Case Study Example The four major management functions, planning, organizing, influencing, and controlling, play a significant role in performing the daily activities of an organization. The concept of planning sets specific goals for organizations, managers, and other employees. In the opinion of Pride, Hughes, and Kapoor (2010), planning assists the management team to understand where the organization is, how to make the organization move along the specified path, and when to take appropriate measures to achieve the targeted organizational goals etc (pp.169-170). Elimination of uncertainties, minimization of impulsive and arbitrary decisions, quick resource allocation, effective use of resources, adaptive responses, anticipative action, and integration of various decisions and activities are other benefits usually obtained from planning. According to Hurd, Barcelona, and Meldrum (2008, pp.42-43), ‘organizing’ is an effective functional element of management that assists the firm to achieve the targets set in the planning phase. Organizing aids a firm to distribute the works effectively among its employees. Organizing is essential to clarify the powers of every manager and the way he has to exercise those powers. This practice will also prevent managers from taking unfair advantages of their position. Similarly, work coordination, effective administration, growth and diversification, sense of security, and scope for new changes are some other fruitful outcomes of organizing. A manager’s level of success or failure is determined on the basis of his/her ability to influence people within the particular department. When managerial individuals effectively deploy their influencing skills, they exude a positive energy that would highly motivate their subordinates. This motivation will directly enhance organizational productivity and thereby profitability. In the view of Marquis and Huston (2009, p. 434).

Vietnam War :: essays research papers

The Vietnam War Bullets cut through the air with blazing speed. Cutting skin as it sped through the air. Piercing cries of pain followed. It seemed like the terror and violence wouldn’t end. What could men do against such reckless hate ? So what was the Vietnam war all about, and why did the United States feel they had to get involved ? President Harry Truman established a foreign policy doctrine commonly known as â€Å"Containment†. This new doctrine was intended to prevent the spread of Communism. The containment doctrine simply stated that any new communist government had to be either part of the â€Å"American empire† or the Soviet empire. It also declared the United States pledge to stop any new communist government that was seeking to expand it’s boarders. However Harry Truman had no idea this new foreign policy would be one of the reasons that would lead the United States into Vietnam in 1965. Then in 1954 Ho Chi Mihn after defeating France in several battles decided to form a National Liberation Front (NLF). This new armed force would fight to the death just to obtain a free and independent Vietnam. This increase the Vietnamese people’s respect for Ho Chi Mihn, especially in the North region. However in America this seemed a bit suspicious. Later in 1954 the Geneva Accords treaty was drafted. The Geneva Accords divided Vietnam in half, creating North and South Vietnam. It also stated that free elections had to be held to decide Vietnam’s fate. Except this was ignored, and South Vietnam announced themselves as ant-communist. This assured the United States support which would provide aid and protection from the communists in the North. South Vietnam’s new president was Ngo Dinh Diem. Diem had once resided in the United States where he caught the attention of President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Eisenhower reasoned that the communist take-over risk of Southeast Asia had heightened, so he sought to use Diem as a nationalist capable of countering the Communist Viet Minh. Diem however showed his true colors and was an embarrassment to the United States. So in 1961 John F. Kennedy increased the supply of weapons and soldiers sent in Vietnam. But on November 2, 1963, Diem was assassinated. So John F. Kennedy planned his ideas for the withdrawal of soldiers from Vietnam. But 20 days later President Kennedy was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald. So around 3 am the following morning Lyndon B.

Rowe and Flexible Work and Success at Best Buy

ROWE and Flexible Work and Success at Best Buy I. Point of View: Consultant II. Statement of the Problem: ROWE program has a difficulty of implementation for retail employees compared to employees in corporate offices and nonretail jobs. III. Objective/s: 1. To identify what are the factors that the ROWE program for retail employee is more difficult to implement. IV. Areas of consideration: 1. With increased productivity, as claimed by the ROWE program, employer expectations of outcome by employees may rise. 2.Retail industry is usually dependent on when the costumer wants to purchase their product, so if the person at the retail store isn’t there when the costumer is there because of â€Å"flexible time schedules† then potential sale could be lost. 3. Employees would want only certain times of the year to meet results. 4. Features of ROWE program. a. No timetables. b. No compulsory meetings. c. No impression-management hustles. d. Work no longer a place to go. Work is something to be done. e. Performance would be based on output, not hours. 5.The basic premise of ROWE was that productivity was the cornerstone of work, and work meant the achievement of results and not presence at the workplace. Accordingly, employees working under ROWE were allowed to work when they wanted and where they wanted, as long as they achieved their targets. 6. Implementing ROWE is not easy. In the first place, it requires a complete overhaul of people's attitudes towards work. Traditionally, employees were programmed to think that displaying a commitment to work by coming in early and leaving late could ensure them success. But this was eliminated as a criterion for judging performance under ROWE.Several employees who were working with ROWE admitted to having misgivings about whether they would be able to cope with the new system. Some people reportedly felt confused about what would be expected from them at the workplace. Staying longest at the office was no longer a g uarantee of success. 7. In theory, ROWE program would work for anyone whose work is project or task based, regardless of whether the employee is an individual contributor or part of a team. 8. After two years, Best Buy saw a 77 percent increase on average in involuntary turnover across three ROWE departments.Meaning, the number of people the company fired for underperformance soared 9. As to legal issue is concerned. ROWE program is complicated when it comes to issues such as nonexempt hourly workers. Law requires that hourly workers log the time they work so that they can be paid overtime if necessary. V. Conclusion & Recommendation: ROWE had several kinks that needed to be ironed out before the program could become a workplace standard. One of the biggest concerns about ROWE was that the difference between the work and personal time of the employees could become blurred. ROWE requires manager to set clear goals and objectives.It requires manager to plan ahead and clearly communica te. The new design required a system in which all employees’ schedules could be accounted for and that everyone is in communication with one another. Invest in technology so that it’s easy for employees to work remotely. This was done through the use of cell phones, since they never knew when or who was in the office and by the managers being informed of their employee’s schedules for that week. The new emphasis placed upon managers trusting their employees is the most crucial change. Trust helps not only improve morale but can also be a strong motivator.When you take the time to trust the people on your team you give them the opportunity to prove themselves. If they succeed it helps twice over, in that not only does the manager know they can do the job but also the employee now knows they can, which strengthens their self-confidence. The beauty of ROWE makes employees accountable to each other, not their managers. It is great to work remotely, but employees los e that sense of unity and teamwork due to the lack to interaction. Implementing ROWE varies on a case to case basis. Whether ROWE or onsite, both options have their pros and cons, so there is no right or wrong options.

Life Is Beautiful Critical Analysis - 1137 Words

Life is Beautiful A fable is a story that teaches a moral lesson. Life is Beautiful is a fantastic story of love and heartbreak, along with a powerful moral message tied into the film. Life is Beautiful starts out as a love story, like the typical funny romantic tale of a man who falls for a beautiful lady and tries to win her affection, Life is Beautiful is also a story of a man who holds it together, for the sake of his young son, during a period of terrible horror and sadness, throughout Hitler’s racism against the Jews. The moral lesson in this film is that one must always stay positive and try to make the best out of every situation and most of all never give up. In the beginning of Life is Beautiful, Guido, comes into the city to†¦show more content†¦It is Giosue’s birthday, Guido and Dora are preparing for a party, when Guido and Giosue are taken away by the Nazi’s, Dora arrives home minutes later to find her husband and son gone. As the Nazi’s are taking them to concentration camp, Guido explains to his son that this is a surprise trip that he planned for Giosue’s birthday. The boy becomes somewhat apprehensive when they board the train, he tells his father that he does not like the train, but Guido explains to him that it is all a part of the game. Guido goes on to tell his son that there will be a big prize if they win the game, the little boy loves tanks, so Guido tells him that will be the prize if they win. Several times during the movie, Guido must make up parts of the game to keep his son from being scared and finding out the truth, throughout the film, Guido continues to turn the camp into a pla y place for the boy. There are times when the boy wants to go home and quit playing the game and each time his father cleverly finds a way to convince him to continue. Guido is always coming up with new ideas to keep his son believing that this is all a game. 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